Countries Of Central Asia: What Are The Prospects?

According to World Bank report, almost all developing countries suffering from economic crisis to a level larger or smaller. 84 of 116 developing countries will be more than significant slowdown in economic activity. In the year 2009 the international GDP lowered enough for the first time since World War II.

According to World Bank report, almost all developing countries suffering from economic crisis to a level larger or smaller.

84 of 116 developing countries will be more than significant slowdown in economic activity. In the year 2009 the international GDP lowered enough for the first time since World War II.

International Monetary Fund described the situation worse. According to the evaluations, the world economic system to half the rate of growth, and poor countries will be on the verge of collapse.

As for the countries of Central Asia, much depends on the pragmatism of the government of each individual and the process of integration into the region in general.

But analysis of the prospects for the countries in the region to survive the crisis should not be counted "their savings, but measuring the maturity of economic models.

Turkmenistan
Of course, the analysis of the economic situation in this country had no immediate information availability. However, the fragmentary data we can conclude as follows: the industry has suffered as a result of insufficient demand for their products.

ajib as in other countries, declining consumer demand, domestic problems.

But compared with major countries of the region - Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan - has never expanded markets, and the balance between supply and demand is not big.

Economic model that is characterized by strict centralization of political power, democratic values are still embryonic.

Turkmenistan's economy is heavily dependent on money coming in for gas. Given the nature of long-term agreement with the Russian "Gazprom" is unlikely that Turkmenistan will drive the economy weak enough.

Turkmenistan is not afraid to dismissals and industrial stagnation: there is almost no industrial infrastructure, so that no resources to increase unemployment. The most important thing for the government to the gas sources to use the internal situation of the country to stabilize. Moreover, examples show that the policy of neutrality of Turkmenistan, and little integration in the CIS is sometimes useful.

Tadjikistan
One of the poorest countries in the region on the verge of collapse, even in a favorable economic conditions. This situation occurs because the ongoing energy crisis is exacerbated by low investment attractiveness Tajik economy. Given the dynamics of foreign investment is perceived that they flows to these countries reached in the crude oil - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. At the same time both countries have the most potential in the field of industrial infrastructure, natural and intellectual potential.

Tajikistan get good production assets such as aluminum and other plants. However, the energy crisis and the instability of spare capacity to play a role.

Foreign investors aware of the situation and not rush to take their business to this Central Asian country.

Damn big Tajik also influenced by issues of foreign policy, namely the country was heavily dependent on Uzbekistan is the geographical point of view. Leaders complex relationships that countries will not give up the most harmful than Tajikistan, Uzbekistan. Tajikistan virtually isolated from the soil seemed "big," said Dushanbe have problems with trade and joint projects with existing CIS and EURASEC partners.

Tashkent to inhibit the country's energy crisis to overcome, and this reduces the opportunities for investment.

Tajikistan was one of the main suppliers of cheap labor to Russia and Kazakhstan. Money to the consumer market in Tajikistan, Tajikistan, will encourage a greater role in the structure of gross domestic product. But today, when the crisis has reached the consumer-state workers, it would not seem effective. According to an evaluation of World Bank specialists, in the year 2009 the transfer of money from migrant workers will be reduced by 40-50%. Therefore, it would be difficult to Dushanbe to resolve the crisis. But there is hope that Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on one side than the other, will still try to help the country to go through a period of tension. They can not corrupt that the destabilization in Tajikistan is detrimental to the region.


Kyrgyzstan

Other poorest countries in the region needed foreign aid. It is not only because of the lack of hydrocarbon resources, but also because we know enough about the policies of former President Askar Akayev who thinks that Kyrgyzstan was ready for fundamental economic reforms.

Moreover, the level of the kingdom of the reform was directly proportional to moments of destabilization, is in the community.

Kyrgyzstan today suffer from the results of that policy: the public is frustrated, she lost her clear guidelines, and still had no electricity in this country who will be able to consolidate society. Quick came from one of the poorest countries to the WTO national industrial infrastructure is damaged, and Kyrgyzstan has lost almost all acquired during the Soviet period.

In general, the state turned into commodities "attachments" from China, which was great. The availability of cheap Chinese, and Turkish goods have caused economic contradictions, dependence and loss of part of the sovereignty of the country.

Obviously, these facts compel people to find happiness in the Kyrgyz other countries, particularly in neighboring Kazakhstan. Today Almaty and regions has become a real Mecca for many people struggling to Kyrgyzstan a better life. Many Kyrgyz work in Russia only because there is no new work in this country.

Investment Potential also arrested by the WTO. Foreign investors not only see objects that are investing in the land into a single market Oriental. Countries with weak tax administration and corruption in its entirety can accumulate funds for development: everyone plays his / her own good.

My goal is not only the possibilities of hydro-technical Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, for it is very hard for potential mean that the current circumstances.


Uzbekistan
This country will not allow much of the crisis because little integration into the structures of the CIS, EURASEC economy and the global economy. This integration is a bit has some advantages and disadvantages.

This is advantageous because the economy is strictly regulated by the state. In general, this process at this time, we perceive the world - countries noted the need for economic regulation. But there are big differences between the concept of this process in the West, Russia or Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Eliminate the economic freedom the mid 90s, the rest of the time the economy has been tightly controlled by the government. Banks rely heavily ball and follow the instructions of the Central Bank. Bus service to the government. And all things work together for domestic and foreign markets are closed for a long time. Banks can not take foreign credit cards, companies have a role of an entity, the import as defined by the government for import substitution and export orientation.

The disadvantage is that the conclusion on the fact that the level of economic compatibility Uzbek call attention. Uzbek production goods are not only lagging behind in quality compared to the best foreign samples, but the product of its regional neighbors - Russia and Kazakhstan.

But it is worth mentioning that there is a car industry a good quality cars. Damping rates in Russia forced the government to return the remaining profits to the detriment of domestic consumers: that is the reason why more cars in Uzbekistan Uzbek costy from abroad. It is unpredictable how long this arrangement there without harming the car factory.

natural gas exported by "Gazprom" to Europe, cotton, metals will remain liquid raw materials can be provided with the means of economic modernization.

With all the present circumstances we must recognize that the crisis in this country, the region will not be serious social damage. Although much depends on the ability of government to their own people, who have lost jobs in Russia and Kazakhstan in service. As previously mentioned, will experience less damage to the economic isolation of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

But that does not mean that the crisis will pass them by and will thrive in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan /

This is the complexity of the region: the problem of the influence of neighboring countries soon. Migration gain of power of the people, that's why people will head more or less stable countries. And if these countries will try to isolate the flow of migration, and border-line will be threatened.

In the case of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and the situation in the Fergana Valley of the power struggle in which she was a very big concern.

Kazakhstan Economic models are more successful in the pre-crisis period. political and economic freedom are relatively liberal way possible for countries to attract foreign investment to modernize the financial system, a quality in the manufacturing industry to develop.

I'm not going to comment about oil and profit: the problem of effective implementation of financial resources is complex. Sources of raw materials would be more significant advantage of Kazakhstan to be. It all depends on the level of control over the spending of funds. If control over the financial resources that the economy will be well established, it will help overcome the crisis at minimal losses. But if the money would obviously be "eaten" the situation could turn into a disaster - it's painful fall from a large tree.


Kazakhstan
Before the crisis this country declared itself as a regional leader not just in policy but also in the economy. This crisis has clearly shown that the weakness of economic models: the dependence on oil supply and little economic diversification. Although, on the other hand, has a weak industrial infrastructure also played a positive role. In Kazakhstan there are few large industrial companies and municipalities, each of which will be no layoffs and no increase due to mass protests in the community.

Despite fluctuations on the world, oil is still liquid and commodity demand in overseas markets. Pretty good market can be observed with wheat, without the other in the world will not be enough to survive, especially with regard to developing countries.

But the most important factor for the Kazakh economy, a neighbor of the Chinese market. Currently, the international financial institutions underlines the intensification of activities in China. In turn, the government of Kazakhstan, even in this crisis and plans to complete the car is very important railway junction projects in the West. Transit can be prosecuted by the Chinese economic rescue Kazakhstan.

Integration of non-alternative
Mutual isolation, its intention to close within its own borders in every way and on an effective economic development in various areas - these are dangerous ideas, the poison of life in this region. Elite satisfied with the nature of the situation, because it gives you a chance to observe the national feed box and live happily ever after. Residents of this area is filled with other schemes where the fund, the brains, goods and services constantly from one country to another.

The leaders of countries in the region need to realize the truth of the usual: no one from outside will not help them in the process of integration. West needs of this region as an alternative source of gas to Russia, but the regional integration - not their headache. Central America is the last thing even in their nightmares. Among all of the rhetoric of their integration into the matter to the best ideas from the isolation region of Russia, in the worst case - against Russia.

At the same time, a beautiful sentence, which the West Can not exist in those areas equal to or in conjunction with Russia - is a simple myth. If you remember how the collapse of the ideas came to this area, we can state the obvious: from the moment that the West began to maintain this position. There is an interesting message drummed into the public consciousness in the brains and central Asia. Like a contradiction, since the Soviet times, which is why they are at rest, and now they are awake. This idea has a historical retrospection: Russia as the successor to the Soviet Union is the only force able to intensify these contradictions. Of course, the West is a new force in opposition to this process.

For its part, Russia has a genuine interest in regional integration on the controls. This can not ignore that the only way to preserve and maintain its influence in the region is a counteraction to the West and its influence in Central Asia.

Main problem of Russia
West can provide the Central Asian countries and the technology of money. At the same time Russia was not able to offer that are not natural allies. This is an important distinction between power, fighting for influence in the region.

Russia Yeltsin to forget about the existence of Central Asia, we assume that the sixth part of Terra is independent and able to solve any problem without help. Putin's Russia is aware that Central Asia is important for the light to stop and look good in Western aggression, pushing the Russians from Eastern Europe, Baltic, Caucasus, and was controlling the process in Ukraine and Georgia.

Putin has succeeded in Chechnya, Abkhazia and South Ossetia to catch: if the process of repression of Russia have the same speed, then Russia will soon have to declare the Moskva River as a line of defense, as in winter 1941.

And in the Caucasus, Putin has a simple task like that is a reaction to the unveiling and finding aggression. Central Asia and no significant problems of aggression geopolitical strategy of Russia soon became clear.

Moscow to counter the threat of open, but do not know what to do with the smile of aggression. Perhaps that is why Russia can gain the victory in the Caucasus, but can do nothing in the Baltic and Eastern Europe, and now in Ukraine and Georgia.

Russia's Boris Yeltsin, Putin and Medvedev can not now develop a clear and comprehensive policy in Central Asia. In turn, those countries in the region stood watch-off Russia intends to become friends with the United States, Europe, or at least with the Chinese. Today, Russia can offer the resources of Central Asia and the brains, things that are left after years of chaos. Many believe that without the money and technology are two compounds do not deserve a dime. But it is a superficial assessment.

Integration without Varian
Natural resources of Russia is an interesting fund of all Central Asian countries, without exception. Intellect in the right industrial policy is able to translate into know-how and technology is achieved. At the same time we should not destroy technological potential of China. Today, China is not believed that Russia and Central Asia a lot, but this situation may change if China and Russia together with its partners in Central Asia, the development of strategies in Central Asia that would include China as an integral or separate part the process - it is not important.

China wants the sources of supply of hydrocarbons to diversify and how to export. This is the safety of China, Beijing, Moscow and Central Asian capitals this fact. Even not only Central Asia but also Russia, the money and technology from China to accept. Chinese funds and technology, resources and brains of the Russians are able to make a vector of integration is unprecedented in the Eurasia region, attracting many countries.

For its part, Central Asian countries are obliged only to the integration process to successfully overcome the impact of the crisis intensify. Attempts to isolate themselves in their border areas exacerbate the problem, and the instability in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan can be spread to neighboring countries and destroyed the results of an individual.

If Russia and China disagree with the countries in the region on the Eurasian integration is extended over the countries in the region should integrate without assistance. This is the development of a pessimistic, but to date, as a good day Moscow and Beijing are ready to resume joint military maneuvers. In order to integrate this scheme, each country will occupy a specific branch.

appropriate specialization and cooperation of manufacturers in the region capable of a crisis to save. In view of the problems that a customs area, Asian currency with an emission center can be considered regional.

At the same time supranational economic structure to consolidate and, in particular the coordination of funding towards asked.

Most important is that the United Central Asia will serve as an independent entity of international law to investments more attractive. This will be a different world, can respond to the world of fast processes. And even the financial-economic crisis.